NINE OF FIFTEEN IDENTIFIED CLIMATE TIPPING POINTS NOW "ACTIVE" SAY SCIENTISTSIn 2008, a group of scientists at the Global Systems Institute of the University of Exeter (United Kingdom) identified fifteen key planetary systems that normally function in mutual equilibrium, but which are to a greater or lesser degree deteriorating from human activities. Their particular concern is how such deterioration is contributing to climate disruption, how fast it is occurring, how changes in several systems can exacerbate each other, and especially how system deterioration can reach a point of no return - or a tipping point.
There are a number of contributing factors to what makes a tipping point, such as: an Earth system passes a critical state where changes occur more rapidly, changes are amplified by positive feedback loops, changes in one Earth system force changes in other Earth systems, changes lead to an abrupt shift where the future state of the system is qualitatively altered, and the system changes are irreversible.
The scientific team now says that nine of the fifteen tipping points have been activated. They are: Arctic sea ice, Greenland ice sheet, Boreal forests, Permafrost, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Amazon rainforest, Warm-water corals, West Antarctic Ice Sheet,and Parts of East Antarctica -
Nine Climate Tipping Points Now “Active”, Warn Scientists.
In a follow up analysis just reported in the journal Nature, the team of scientists warn that a “cascade of changes sparked by global warming could threaten the existence of human civilizations. Evidence is mounting that these events are more likely and more interconnected than was previously thought, leading to a possible domino effect". Their research now shows that there is
a higher risk that abrupt and irreversible changes to the climate system could be triggered at smaller global temperature increases than thought just a few years ago. Co-author of the report, Johan Rockström, said "As science advances, we must admit that we have underestimated the risks where the planet self-amplifies global warming. This is what we are starting to see at 1°C global warming". The Nature article reports that "Some economists have suggested that 3 °C warming is optimal from a cost–benefit perspective. However, if tipping points are looking more likely, then
the ‘optimal policy’ is that warming must be limited to 1.5 °C. This requires an emergency response. To err on the side of danger is not a responsible option". Learn more at -
Climate tipping points - too risky to bet against, and
Climate Tipping Points Are Closer Than We Think, Scientists Warn.
UN EMISSIONS GAP REPORT: RENEWABLE ENERGY MUST ROLL OUT SIX TIMES FASTER
Each year, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) publishes a UN Emissions Gap Report describing the gap between the target amount of global CO
2 reductions needed to keep climate warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, and the amount and pace of actual CO
2 reductions occurring. In order to meet the 1.5°C goal, the report for the first time enumerates how great the CO
2 reductions need to be starting now to meet the 2030 deadline established in last year's report.
Their conclusion is that humanity needs to reduce emissions by 7.6 per cent every year from 2020 to 2030. If we do not, temperatures can be expected to rise 3.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with devastating effect. In reality and in spite of 25 years of U.N. climate conferences, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have
risen 1.5% annually over the past decade.
Every year, the report features ways to bridge the gap. This year, the report looks at the potential of the energy transition – particularly in the electricity, transport and buildings sectors. In that context the report warns that renewable energy deployment needs to happen six times faster than it currently is. PV Magazine reviewed the findings and said "The report notes the record high 167 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy generation capacity deployed last year – including 108 GW of solar – and added that the $273 billion invested in renewables was around three times more than was spent on coal and gas.
However, the report notes, coal, oil and gas still meet 85% of the world’s energy needs." In terms of clean energy-related policy recommendations, Argentina is urged to support the roll-out of small-scale renewables systems; Japan is advised to come up with a plan for a carbon-free energy mix; the EU is urged to fine-tune its CO
2 tax and hydrogen gas strategy; and Brazil, China, and India are all asked to step up their electric vehicle initiatives. Regarding president* Drumph who pulled out of the Paris Agreement a month ago, the U.N. document says "Despite the Trump administration’s actions, market trends have resulted in a significant drop in emissions over the past decade”. Read more at -
Clean energy must be rolled out six times faster.
TO STOP THE EXTRACTION OF FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES - STOP THE MONEY
Reversing climate disruption requires a multi-faceted approach, including ramping up renewable energy supplies, increasing CO
2 drawdown by expanding forests and organic agriculture, using electric and hydrogen fuel cell cars, rapid shifts in government policy, and keeping fossil fuels in the ground. As to that last one, a 2015 study published in the journal Nature concluded that a maximum of 1,100 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO
2) is all the atmosphere can absorb up to 2050, or global temperatures will rise above 2°C. But the total amount of CO
2 in known fossil fuel reserves is around three times higher than this.
Burning them would obviously demolish any hope of staying under 2°C, much less the revised safe limit of 1.5°C. The 2015 report said that about two thirds of fossil reserves must never be burned and must stay in the ground, or about 750 Gt of CO
2. Today the 1.5°C warming limit would require about 90% of reserves must stay in the ground -
Leave fossil fuels buried to prevent climate change, study urges.
If known fossil fuel reserves are mostly restricted, then any exploration for more is pointless and ultimately worthless. Their only value is to be burned, an option increasingly being rejected by the energy market, by citizens, and by a growing number of government units. At some point the market value of the fossil reserves will drop below what was invested to find and extract them, leaving them as "stranded assets".
The main driver keeping fossil fuels economically afloat is that of investment banks, which make money on interest rates regardless of whether a fossil energy company is profitable or not. For example, petroleum and natural gas fracking companies are losing money, and able to continue only because of bank loans -
Will the Fracking Revolution Peak Before Ever Making Money?. Bill McKibben points out that in the three years since the Paris agreement, just one bank,
JPMorgan Chase, has directed $196 billion to extreme energy investments of deep water drilling, Arctic oil, mountain top removal, and others. Furthermore he said "The same is true of the asset-management and insurance industries: without them, the fossil-fuel companies would almost literally run out of gas" -
Money Is the Oxygen on Which the Fire of Global Warming Burns.
Divestment has great potential as another tactic to reverse climate disruption.
350.org that Bill McKibben founded helped launch a divestment campaign that has persuaded college endowments, pension funds, and others to divest from fossil fuel companies to the tune of $11 trillion. Oil change International just completed a three year effort which convinced the European Investment Bank to cease their fossil fuel investments. A couple resources for divestment are:
A new $11 trillion fossil free milestone, and
Fossil Free Campaigns.
KANSAS CLIMATE AND HEALTH DECLARATION
During the Summer of this year, the Climate & Energy Project launched the Kansas Climate and Health Declaration initiative. Over 400 Kansans and 30 organizations have already signed the
Kansas Climate and Health Declaration to make a clear call to our state’s leadership to address climate disruption as a primary threat to public health. The initiative aims to increase awareness of the impacts of climate disruption on public health, increase civic engagement on climate action in Kansas, and advance policies that build community resilience and safeguard the future of our state.
Individuals and organizations can join the movement to urge bold, comprehensive action to reduce emissions and build resilience. For more info, and to sign go to -
Kansas Climate and Health Declaration.
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